2015 NBA Playoff Preview

East 1st Round

(8) Brooklyn Nets vs (1) Atlanta Hawks

I don't have the highest opinion of the Hawks as a 1 seed, but the Nets are about as close to a doormat as you get for a first round opponent.  They should have broken up this team and stockpiled as many draft picks and young prospects as possible, but instead they managed to stumble their way into a playoff spot.  The threesome of Deron Williams, Joe Johnson and Brook Lopez is no threat to anybody, and the Hawks should have no problem putting this team on ice.  Hawks in 5

(7) Boston Celtics vs (2) Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers wanted this first round matchup, as evidenced by tanking 2 games they could have easily won if they wanted to.  The Cavs have been the best team in the East for some time now, and the young Celtics just do not have the firepower to keep up.  Cavs in 4

(6) Milwaukee Bucks vs (3) Chicago Bulls

To some extent, the Bucks probably just feel happy to be in the playoffs.  They would have liked to bring Jabari Parker with them, but he unfortunately won't be back until next year.  The Bulls have had questionable health all season long, but I don't see the young Bucks being able to put up a huge fight in this one.  Bulls in 5

(5) Washington Wizards vs (4) Toronto Raptors

This is a tough one.  The Wizards sometimes play really bad team basketball.  The Raptors really need Kyle Lowry healthy.  If there was no question about Lowry's health, there's no question I would take the Raptors, but the Wizards do have a shot at an upset.  I'm going to stick to my guns here though, and say the Raptors will get enough from Lowry.  Raptors in 7

West 1st Round

(8) New Orleans Pelicans vs (1) Golden State Warriors

The Warriors regular season went about as well as you can realistically imagine.  Steph Curry will probably be the MVP (although I would vote for Harden).  The Pelicans made the playoffs by the skin of their teeth.  There isn't a whole lot around Anthony Davis on the Pelicans.  Jrue Holiday is a good, but not great point guard.  Omer Asik and Ryan Anderson are nice role players.  Tyreke Evans is an overrated knucklehead that will probably shoot them out of a few games.  The Warriors are loaded.  You can't stop Steph Curry, then you have to deal with Klay Thompson.  Then there's Harrison Barnes, and David Lee, and on the defensive end there's Andre Iguodala, Andrew Bogut, and Draymond Green.  Just way too many weapons on the Warriors for the Pelicans to deal with.  Warriors in 4

(7) Dallas Mavericks vs (2) Houston Rockets

Despite being a Rockets fan, I do see this as a competitive series.  Dallas appears to be moving in the wrong direction having struggled in the 2nd half of the season, and really since the Rondo trade, but that's a storyline the Rockets know too well, after having faced a Blazers team last year that slumped through the 2nd half of the season.  James Harden is the best player in the series, and a case could be made that Dwight Howard is the second best player, but the Rockets really don't have a lot around those two.  Dirk Nowitzki is capable of getting hot for a few games, and this will likely be an emotional series that Chandler Parsons will want to win.  Now that I've set you up, I'm still taking chalk here.  Rockets in 6

(6) San Antonio Spurs vs (3) Los Angeles Clippers

Not the outcome the Spurs were hoping for as they had a chance to move up all the way to 2nd on the last night of the regular season, but all is not lost here for the Spurs.  Despite losing the finale to New Orleans, the Spurs looked strong to close the season as they were riding an 11 game win streak before the loss to end the season.  The Clippers finished somewhat strong, after hanging around the 6 seed most of the season and moving up to 3 at the very end, but they somewhat benefited from the schedule in that move.  The Spurs are deeper, they play better defense, and they play much smarter in crunch time, which is why they will win this series, despite not having home court.  Spurs in 6

(5) Memphis Grizzlies vs (4) Portland Trail Blazers

Both of these teams were looking strong through the first half of the season, but have struggled recently.  Memphis looked like a lock for the 2 seed, but an extended 2nd half slump dropped them all the way to 5th.  Portland managed the 4 seed by way of division title, but would really be the 6 seed if division winners weren't guaranteed a top 4 position.  Both teams have had injuries to deal with, the biggest being the Blazers losing Wes Matthews for the season to a torn achilles.  LaMarcus Aldridge has been fighting through a lot of injuries as well, and their 2nd half slide is evidence of that.  Memphis has had a few with Mike Conley and Tony Allen missing some games late in the season, although they will most likely play in the playoffs.  Memphis appears to be the slightly healthier of the two teams, which is why I'm taking them in this series.  Grizzlies in 6

Gaining Respect for LeBron James

We all know the story at this point.  LeBron is coming home to Cleveland.  Forgiveness.  Redemption.  The feel good story for the city of Cleveland.

I don't want to focus this post so much on how big this is for Cleveland, I just want to take a minute to give the man props for carrying out this decision and this whole process in the right way.  LeBron has been a controversial figure over the last 4 years over his actions in the summer of 2010, and much of the controversy was justified.  There was "The Decision", the construction of a super team through the power of his free agency, and then the fanfare of predicting a Jordan-like run of championships without having played a single game together.  After all of this, why wouldn't he be subjected to years of criticism and hate?  Fans naturally like their athletes to show loyalty and humility, and that series of events was neither.  Perhaps making matters worse was the way LeBron stubbornly refused to admit any regret for his actions for more than a full year.  Even after losing in the 2011 Finals, he made a comment about how his life is still better than all of his haters.  I do not bring this up with the intent to criticize LeBron, but to bring some context to who he is today.  This time around, he didn't make a huge national TV event.  He essentially released a statement that by all accounts appears genuine on why he made past decisions and why he chose to return to Cleveland.  He admitted mistakes.  He gently showed forgiveness towards Dan Gilbert and the fans who burned his jersey, a move many would say is unnecessary.  He spoke of his home state in a poetic way, and about the good he wants to bring to those people.  There was nothing in his statement that you could point to as being typical of an egotistical star athlete.  He was human.  He acknowledged that there will be significant challenges to bringing a championship to his home state, the complete opposite of his "Not 5, Not 6, Not 7" proclamation from 2010.  What do we take from all of this?  That LeBron James has grown up and is now conducting his business the way an adult should.  With all of these events, we see a man who has learned from his mistakes, matured, and become a great example of what a star athlete should be.  In my opinion, LeBron should no longer be looked upon by anyone as a villainous figure and it's time to put away ill feelings caused by the events surrounding his move to Miami in 2010.  While his actions of the past were deserving of criticism, I believe his actions today have now shown that it's time to leave those criticisms behind and move forward recognizing him as a great athlete and a first class citizen.

2014 NBA Playoffs

Just some of my thoughts on this year's NBA Playoffs.  I think there are 3 teams I could actually see win the title this year - San Antonio, Miami, and Oklahoma City.  The other teams I just don't believe are complete enough to go through the competition they will have to face in 4 rounds to get it done.  That being said, here's my first round preview:

West

(1) San Antonio vs (8) Dallas
I don't have a lot to say about this series.  We know the Spurs have been great all year and Dallas was in a fight just to get into the playoffs with aging star Dirk Nowitzki.  I'm not sure how the Spurs keep doing it with their stars getting older every year, but they are as strong as ever this season.  In this series, the Spurs largely take care of business but I think they'll let one of the games in Dallas slip away.  Spurs in 5

(2) Oklahoma City vs (7) Memphis
A little tougher matchup for the Thunder than you would typically expect in a 2/7 matchup.  The Grizzlies overcame a slow start to get in as the seventh seed, and Memphis is always a difficult place for road teams to play.  The most obvious difference I see between this year's series and last year's 4-1 Memphis win is the Thunder having Westbrook healthy, which I believe would have made the difference in last year's series where all of the games were close.  Thunder in 6

(3) LA Clippers vs (6) Golden State
Last year, Golden State became the darlings of the early rounds of the playoffs with the upset win over the Nuggets and then winning game 2 at San Antonio, as Stephen Curry really broke out as a big star in the league.  They come in with the 6 seed just like last year, but a tougher first round opponent in the LA Clippers.  The loss of Andrew Bogut will hurt Golden State more in this matchup than probably any of the other top 4 seeds because of the Clippers big men Blake Griffin and Deandre Jordan.  However, Golden State does manage to win some games they probably shouldn't with their 3 point gunners Curry and Klay Thompson.  Clippers win a hard fought series.  Clippers in 7

(4) Houston vs (5) Portland
These two are somewhat similar in being strong on the offensive end of the floor and often not very good on the defensive end.  The Rockets had a strong second half to the season while the Blazers have struggled since their hot start early in the year.  I suspect this will be a competitive series early, but the Rockets with a little bit better talent at the top will eventually gain control and win this series.  Rockets in 6

East

(1) Indiana vs (8) Atlanta
The Pacers will be an interesting team to follow in these playoffs.  Up until about the all star break, they looked like a serious contender to win the title, but the last two months have done very little to show they are still at that level.  The truth is probably somewhere in between.  With the Hawks, they get a team that has given them matchup problems, but also isn't very good being the only team in the playoffs with a losing record. The Pacers are still the better team here and I believe that will eventually show in the end, even if they have some problems early.  Pacers in 6

(2) Miami vs (7) Charlotte
The classic championship pedigree meets happy to be there team.  Honestly, I think the Heat could win this series without LeBron James if they had to for some reason.  The Bobcats depth of talent isn't great.  It seems they probably took advantage of a down year in the eastern conference to get into the playoffs.  Look at it this way - Al Jefferson is the Bobcats' best player, he would probably be the 4th best player in the Heat behind James, Wade and Bosh.  Miami also wants rest between rounds so they will take care of business.  Heat in 4

(3) Toronto vs (6) Brooklyn
Looking at the rosters of these two teams, you can't help wondering how Toronto would have finished ahead of Brooklyn in the standings, but I suppose much of that could be how Brooklyn had to dig themselves out from a terrible start to even be in this position.  The Nets have experience, they have better talent.  It's just a matter of figuring out the matchup before they get this series working in their favor.  Nets in 6

(4) Chicago vs (5) Washington
The Wizards are largely new to the playoff scene, although they do have a few experienced veterans like Trevor Ariza, Marcin Gortat, and Nene.  Even though a case can be made that the Wizards have better talent than the Bulls, I have a hard time seeing them matching the intensity and keeping their heads together in crucial situation the way the more experienced blue-collar Bulls will.  Bulls in 5

I suspect there won't be a lot of drama in this year's first round - that won't really start until round 2.  If these matchups go as predicted we'll see what the Rockets 4-0 season series against the Spurs really means (hint: NOTHING), the Clippers trying to legitimize themselves as contenders against OKC (remember, this group of Clippers has yet to win a 2nd round playoff game).  Will the Pacers have resolved their issues to where they are ready to grind out a series against the blue-collar Bulls?  Also, what will Brooklyn's 4-0 season series over the Heat actually mean? (hint: NOTHING).  Is the Pacers/Heat conference finals series we anticipated most of the year still going to happen?

Random NFL Thoughts, 3 Weeks In

Surprises
Not a lot here.  Most of the teams currently sitting at 3-0 we shouldn't really be all that surprised.  The 2 biggest surprises here are the Kansas City Chiefs and the Miami Dolphins.  Kansas City seems the bigger of the 2 surprises.  Some would say Andy Reid's coaching, some would say it's Alex Smith's mistake-free football, I tend to believe it's more the former.  While Andy Reid's recent track record in Philadelphia isn't so great, he did have several seasons where you could make a strong argument that the team achieved beyond what could reasonably be expected of them.  The Chiefs are a talented team, but they were 4-12 last year for a reason, and Reid appears to have corrected a lot of the problems they had last year.

I consider the Dolphins 3-0 start a little less surprising because of who they've played so far.  A road win over the Cleveland Browns and close wins at Indianapolis and at home vs Atlanta.  The win over the Colts is a little surprising under the circumstances, but the Colts did not play very well the previous week in a close win over a very bad Raiders team.  Granted, the Colts did beat the 49ers in San Francisco this Sunday, but I believe that game had more to do with what's currently wrong with the 49ers than what's right with the Colts.

Disappointments
The Giants 0-3 start is stunning.  I know Eli has stretches where he will throw it to the other team too much, but what's happened the first 3 weeks is pretty much ridiculous.  I'm not pointing at just Eli, because the offensive line has been abysmal, but a quarterback does need to be accountable for his throws. There is not a phase of the game where the Giants have looked strong in any of their 3 games.  I have a hard time believing they are going to look this bad the entire season, but my initial prediction of them going 10-6 and winning the NFC East doesn't even seem possible now.

The Steelers 0-3 start is a little surprising but not a shock.  Ben Roethlisberger's supporting cast on offense has eroded in recent years because of free agency, and the defense has gotten older now, to the point where the dominating defense of the 2008 Super Bowl team is now a distant memory.  The most surprising result of the Steelers season is the opening day loss at home to a Tennessee Titans team that while may be better than expected, is most likely not a playoff team.

The Redskins 0-3 start is mildly surprising, but not shocking.  I don't think it was very realistic for anybody to expect RGIII to hit the ground running this year.  A mobile quarterback coming back from an ACL injury with no preseason games is ideal for nobody but your opponents.  Right now for the Redskins to win, they need their underperforming defense to step up, and get more from the running game to open up the passing game for RGIII.

The Packers and 49ers both being 1-2 is mildly surprising, but not shocking considering the schedules that both have played.  Both teams are also dealing with some injuries right now that are holding them back from looking like the Super Bowl contending teams they are expected to be.

What Will Change
I expect both the Packers and 49ers to right the wrongs that have lead to their 1-2 starts.  The schedule gets easier for both and as long as they get healthier as expected, I would still expect them both to be 12-4 teams that may meet in the NFC Championship game.

The Redskins will likely recover some as RGIII gets his legs back and is able to get into more of a rhythm with his passing game.  Still, I had them taking a step back this season going 8-8, but given the current state of the NFC East, that may actually be enough to get them back into the playoffs.

The Giants have looked Jacksonville Jaguar bad, but clearly they are better than this.  I believe they will be able to address some of their issues and salvage a 7-9 record after this terrible start, assuming this bad offensive line doesn't get Eli knocked out.  If I was a Giants fan though, I would be concerned that if things don't get better, Tom Coughlin may be pushed to the retirement home.  It would be a mistake if it happened, but we know how New York's sometimes unrealistic expectations can lead to regrettable decisions.  Usually the Giants organization is able to avoid these, but even the best can be vulnerable to criticism.

NFL Predictions 2013

NFL 2013 Picks

NFC East

NY Giants 10-6

Washington 8-8

Dallas 7-9

Philadelphia 5-11

NFC Central

Green Bay 12-4

Chicago 10-6

Detroit 8-8

Minnesota 7-9

NFC South

Atlanta 11-5

New Orleans 10-6

Carolina 8-8

Tampa Bay 4-12

NFC West

San Francisco 12-4

Seattle 11-5

St Louis 8-8

Arizona 6-10

AFC East

New England 10-6

Miami 8-8

Buffalo 4-12

NY Jets 3-13

AFC North

Cincinnati 11-5

Baltimore 10-6

Pittsburgh 8-8

Cleveland 6-10

AFC South

Houston 11-5

Indianapolis 10-6

Tennessee 5-11

Jacksonville 3-13

AFC West

Denver 13-3

San Diego 8-8

Kansas City 7-9

Oakland 2-14

Super Bowl - Broncos over 49ers

More details to come...

NBA Playoffs!!!!

It's that time again, where I become a total basketball junkie for 2 months! Time for me to chime in with my analysis of the upcoming drama. I'm going to break down each matchup with my expectation of what's going to happen.

1 - San Antonio vs 8 - Memphis
The Grizzlies have had a nice, cute little run to get into the playoffs this year, but that run is going to end now. The simple fact is that even with Rudy Gay, the Grizzlies can't match the Spurs talent level and without him, this is even more of a mismatch. Their best player is Zach Randolph, and it's arguable that he won't even win his one on one matchup with Tim Duncan. Size is the Grizzlies advantage in this series, but the Spurs have plenty of size of their own and they have guys that can score consistently on the perimeter. The Grizzlies look like a team that in the end we will say was just happy to get into the playoffs. Spurs in 4

2 - LA Lakers vs 7 - New Orleans
This looks like another classic mismatch. The one thing the Hornets have going for them is Chris Paul can blow by Derek Fisher at will. The problem is the Lakers have a huge advantage in size and the individual match ups for Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol are such an advantage for the Lakers that it's hard to see the Lakers losing. If New Orleans had David West, they might be able to steal a game or two, but without him they are at such a huge disadvantage that I don't see them winning a game. Lakers in 4

3 - Dallas vs 6 - Portland
This is probably the most competitive first round series. Dallas appears to be the most vulnerable of the first round favorites in the west, and there is the whole mystery of how good Portland is with the injuries they've had to deal with and the acquisition of Gerald Wallace. On paper, Portland actually appears to be the more talented of the two teams, but the pieces that Dallas have seem to fit together well, enough to win 57 games in the tough western conference. I feel like I'm going out on a limb with this prediction, but I'm going to take the Blazers in 7. For Dallas to win, I think Dirk Nowitzki needs to dominate the matchup with LaMarcus Aldridge as the Blazers appear to have the better supporting cast. That could happen, but I don't think it's going to. Blazers in 7

4 - Oklahoma City vs 5 - Denver
This matchup is intriguing from the perspective that Denver has played surprisingly well since trading Carmelo Anthony, but the real question is are they actually better? Based on the last two regular season meetings between these two, I'm going to have to say no. The Thunder and Nuggets played a competitive game in Denver, but the Thunder seemed to take over in the 4th when they needed to. In the rematch in Oklahoma City, the Thunder were pretty much in control. The biggest thing Denver has going against them is their inability to match up with Kevin Durant. The Nuggets really don't have a good perimeter defender that they can throw at him. The Nuggets are still good enough that they can win games in this series, but when it's all said and done, Oklahoma City just looks like they can do more damage. Thunder in 6

1 - Chicago vs 8 - Indiana
The Bulls have had a great regular season and come into these playoffs with the most excitement they've had since Michael Jordan left. Derrick Rose almost certainly will be MVP. Tom Thibodeau is one of the leading candidates for coach of the year. They're a great defensive team and have good (not great) scorers in Carlos Boozer and Luol Deng. The Pacers have Danny Granger. Granger may be good enough to carry the Pacers to a win at home during this series, but I doubt it. Bulls in 4

2 - Miami vs 7 - Philadelphia
This matchup overwhelmingly favors the Heat from a talent perspective. Somehow, I think the Heat are still a work in progress and I could see them dropping a game in this series. I'm not predicting a sweep because of Miami having more of a tendency for inconsistency than other contenders and I do think they drop a game in this series, but it wouldn't really surprise me if they do sweep. Heat in 5

3 - Boston vs 6 - New York
This matchup has a lot of hype, but that's all it is. The Celtics are deeper and more talented, and they can come up with defensive stops when they need to. The Knicks can push the tempo, but even with their offense, I don't think they can stop the Celtics enough to win games in this series. Celtics in 4

4 - Orlando vs 5 - Atlanta
Orlando is sort of viewed as a team in decline as they have gone from the Finals to the East Finals to now not being favored to get past the second round. Atlanta is viewed as a second tier type of team and in the now deeper eastern conference is going to struggle to advance at all in the playoffs. Even with Atlanta winning the season series 3 out of 4, the Hawks have not looked very strong in the second half of the season. I think the Hawks will be out to prove that they're better than their pathetic showing in last year's meeting with Orlando, but in the end I just don't believe they have the weapons to pull this off. Magic in 6

- Posted using BlogPress from my iPad

World Series, NBA Starts, NFL Near Halfway Point

This is that rare time where the NFL, NHL, NBA, and MLB are all playing at the same time. It only lasts about a week, but fans of all 4 sports have something to look forward to right now.

World Series

To me, this year's World Series matchup is further proof that the baseball playoffs are a crapshoot. Any team that gets in actually has a chance to go all the way. The Giants have gotten there purely on pitching. The Rangers got there mostly with offense but also got some good outings from Cliff Lee. If the first round was a 7 game series instead of a 5 game series, we might be talking about the Rays instead of the Rangers right now, as Cliff Lee's 2 starts basically shifted the series in the Rangers favor. As far as the series itself, Cliff Lee will likely start games 1 and 5, and against the Giants lineup you wouldn't think he'd have too many problems. If Cliff Lee is as automatic this series as he's been so far in the playoffs, the Giants would basically have to win 4 out of the remaining 5 games, or hope they can shut down the Rangers lineup in Cliff Lee's starts and win the games late. For this reason, I think the Rangers probably win this series, probably in 5 or 6 games.

NBA 2010-11 Season Starts

So we finally get to see the Miami Heat play some real games. After a lot of offseason talk (and resentment) we finally get to see what this team really is. I think Chris Bosh complements both LeBron and Wade well, the thing I'm not sure about is how well LeBron and Wade complement each other. They do have an advantage most teams don't have where they will probably be able to keep at least one all star in the game all the time and probably have two in for a good chunk of the games. Don't be surprised if the Heat win a lot of their games in the 2nd quarter and the late 3rd to early 4th quarters when other teams are going to their bench. Not sure how that rotation is going to work, but I imagine between LeBron and Wade, one of them is pretty much always going to be in the game.

Now for the picks... For the western conference, I think the Lakers are still pretty much a clear cut favorite. I have the closest threat to them being the Oklahoma City Thunder, who I think will reach the west finals but come up just short once again. In the East, I have Miami knocking off Orlando in the conference finals. For the Finals, I think Miami beats the Lakers in a tough series that goes all the way to game 7. Here's how I tend to believe the regular season shakes down:

West: 1. LA Lakers, 2. Oklahoma City, 3. Dallas, 4. Portland, 5. Utah, 6. San Antonio, 7. Houston, 8. Phoenix
East: 1. Miami, 2. Orlando, 3. Chicago, 4. Boston, 5. Atlanta, 6. Milwaukee, 7. Philadelphia, 8. Charlotte

A few notes: We know Boston doesn't care about the regular season so I think they'll coast to win the Atlantic division and thus carry the 4 seed. Boston is probably better than Chicago, but Chicago likely wins the Central and puts more emphasis on the regular season and takes the 3rd seed. Notably missing from the west is Denver. We'll see how much the Carmelo Anthony situation affects this team, and if he even finishes the season in Denver. I don't see how they can overcome this turmoil to win enough games in a conference as deep as the west to get into the playoffs.

NFL After 7 Weeks

At this point in the season, it looks as if the Steelers, Ravens and Jets are the class of the league. I tend to think it's more like Ravens and Steelers, and the Jets are more of a 2nd tier team. The Patriots and Colts kind of look like they could be darkhorse teams in the AFC, we'll see what happens in the 2nd half of the season. The NFC looks like it's wide open. The Giants and Falcons are leading at 5-2 right now with several teams sitting at 4-3. The Giants have looked strong over the last few weeks, we'll see if they can sustain that as the last 2 years they haven't finished their seasons strong. The Packers were my favorite in the NFC at the beginning of the season, but the injuries they're dealing with could potentially be their downfall. The Bears (4-3) have offensive line issues and an erratic quarterback. The Redskins and Eagles (4-3) have both been hot and cold. The Saints (4-3) look like they might be having a Super Bowl hangover. Hard to select any of these teams as a favorite, we'll just have to see how things play out.